Resources and energy export forecasts for 2012-13
18 September 2012
Australia's resources and energy commodity export earnings are forecast to be $189 billion in 2012–13, according to the Resources and Energy Quarterly–September quarter 2012, released today by the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE).
"The latest forecasts of volumes and prices show two distinct trends. First, the prices of many resources have moderated from historic highs in 2011 and further declines are expected over the medium term in US$ terms relative to these peaks. Second, Australian export volumes, especially in terms of bulk commodities, are growing rapidly and are expected to do so for several years to come" said Professor Quentin Grafton, BREE's Executive Director and Chief Economist.
For the majority of major minerals and energy commodities export volumes are forecast to increase. The largest increases in volumes are forecast for LNG (21 per cent), thermal coal (14 per cent), metallurgical coal (12 per cent) and copper (10 per cent). Growth in exports volumes of iron ore are also forecast to remain robust, increasing by 8 per cent to over 500 million tonnes in 2012–13.
The forecast increase in LNG exports in 2012–13 reflects the start up of the Pluto LNG project, which will increase Australia's LNG capacity from around 20 million tonnes to over 24 million tonnes.
"This forecast, as emphasised in the macroeconomic outlook, is based on assumed improvements in world, OECD and Chinese economic growth in 2013 and the assumption that the Australian dollar will remain close to parity with the US dollar in 2013" said Professor Grafton.
Included in the review section of the Resources and Energy Quarterly–September quarter 2012 is an article on the importance, drivers and phases of the Millennium Mining Boom, which "provides a useful 'stock take' of what has happened over the past decade of the resources boom and its impact on the Australian economy" said Professor Grafton.
For free downloads of the Resources and Energy Quarterly report, please visit the BREE website www.bree.gov.au.
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