Bulk commodity exports to increase to 2025
02 July 2012
Australia's bulk commodity (coal, iron ore and LNG) export volumes are projected to more than double in between 2012 and 2025, according to a report released today by the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE).
The report examines the outlook for Australia's bulk commodity exports in the context of projections of world import demand, competition from other suppliers and the availability of Australian port and rail infrastructure out to 2025.
"The increase in Australia's bulk commodity exports over the next decade will be underpinned by strong demand in Asia and Australia's position as a world class exporter of iron ore, coal and LNG." said Professor Quentin Grafton, BREE's Executive Director and Chief Economist.
Future growth in coal, iron ore and LNG import demand will largely be underpinned by demand from Asia, including China and India.
Australian exports to these markets will face increased competition from countries such as Indonesia and Mongolia (coal), Brazil and West Africa (iron ore) and North America (LNG).
Based on a market share scenario analysis, Australia's exports to 2025 for thermal coal could increase to between 267 and 383 million tonnes, metallurgical coal to 260 to 306 million tonnes iron ore to 885 to 1082 million tonnes and LNG to 86 to 130 million tonnes.
Export volumes to 2025 are predicted to increase from 119 to 235 million tonnes for thermal coal, 127 to 173 million tonnes for metallurgical coal, 446 to 643 million tonnes for iron ore and 67 to 111 million tonnes for LNG.
"The large projected volume increase will help offset expected declines in bulk commodity prices and allow Australia to maintain the value of its mineral and energy exports," Professor Grafton said.
BREE projects that port and rail infrastructure either in operation, under construction or planned will meet all bulk commodity export volume scenarios in 2025.
Infrastructure at the planning stage will provide for an increasing proportion of this.
For free downloads of the Australian bulk commodity exports and infrastructure – outlook to 2025 report and a 12 page supplementary report, please visit the BREE website.